Tuesday, November 26, 2013

By-election Results Confirm Conservative Fortunes

A bias can include many things but one of those things is a model of reality kept in your mind.  These models are commonly called paradigms or a worldview.  Nothing is more satisfying than having one's worldview born out by events.  You could argue this is an example of confirmation bias.  If it is then I would say that I prefer to have my worldview confirmed rather than shattered.

Monday, our views were confirmed. 

Here are results from ThreeHundredEight.com:

You don't have to be a glass half full person to appreciate what actually happened.  Conservatives won their two seats no matter how you cut it.  It's a burn on the media party.  Their frantic spinning now only proves it.

Yesterday's by-election results have confirmed a few things for Conservatives.

  1. The so-called Senate Scandal, pushed hard by media and other malicious actors, is not as important as advertised.  Its a parking ticket.  A parking ticket venomously written up by nasty little pin heads with petty chips on their shoulders.
  2. The Liberals and Justin Trudeau are the primary threat to the Conservatives.  People who brush off the third party (or the "turd party" as Chretien liked to say) are deluding themselves.  Romney should be President.  Smith and Hudak should be Premiers.  Don't think any election is in the bag.  The next election is as serious as the coalition crisis of 2008 itself.
  3. Layton's NDP was a flash in the pan.  Of all the analysis, the most stark is the NDP in marked decline from 2011.  Largely ignored by the Media Party, this is the most powerful conclusion to be drawn from any of the by-election contests.  Mulcair dramatically played Matlock for the parking ticket Senate affair in parliament and where did it get him?  Down.  Thanks for wasting everyone's time angry Tom. 
Of course I couldn't be happier if Conservatives had swept every riding, but realistically I'm glad to see my expectations for the by-elections fulfilled. 

Our political maps are good.  The shallows and hazards are well marked.  Our course to victory is sound so long as we stay on it.

1 comment:

Lorne Russell said...

1. The Senate scandal by itself is insignificant. However it will be followed by another faux-scandal, then another, and another. This is the media play book. That WILL have an affect on voter perceptions.

2. Yes JT is the main opponent in the next election. Conservatives did a good job of defining Dithers Martin, bumbling Dijon and just visiting Iggy. They have not done a good job defining JT. He's winning the image battle. Time's a wasting.

3. Layton was seen as likable, personable and real. He destroyed Iggy in the debates, much to the Conservatives' benefit. That won't happen next time around. Muclair is seen as angry and not at all likable - and he is a lousy debater.

The next election will be tough with the media & "intelligentsia" pulling for Shiny Pony and Muclair unable to affectively attack JT or contribute to vote splits on the left.

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