I don’t believe the Egyptian situation will get out of hand in the short term. The situation is firmly in the hands of the army. They are capable and willing to impose order if necessary and have so far shown restraint. They even rescued a CBC cameraman from a mob yesterday.
Nobody will win unless the army wins. It’s an army that is well funded by the United States. $1.5 billion goes to Egypt every year from the US alone. I don’t believe they will allow themselves to become involved in the Muslim Brotherhood’s war on the west. That would see them cut off and targeted, if not attacked at some point in the future. As supreme as the Egyptian army is over a mob, armies of the west would similarly dominate over Egypt’s army.
Why would they get involved in all that anyway? Healthy economies live in friendly countries. The economy is the whole problem. The people are angry about food and oil prices.
Egypt makes plenty of money off of Suez traffic. This traffic hasn’t stopped. Egypt also makes plenty of money in tourism. That has stopped but if the pyramids could wait out the Romans, they can wait out a mob. The mob can also wait out their current government while the electoral infrastructure is built and the constitution rewritten.
Its become clear that the “Pro-Mubarak” protesters were infiltrated and inflated with plain clothes police and army. It’s a not so subtle hint to the “democracy” protesters. They have won. There will be elections. Now its time to go home. At some point, all that will be left are radicals who want to fight the army. Perhaps that is why cameras are being confiscated from balconies and smashed on the streets. The army will clear the mob at some point.
There is very little chance that this will affect the flow of oil except through fear or an expectation that oil will be scarce. The market already isn’t buying into it. Jeff Rubin even said that oil will skyrocket and the recovery is finished, which gives me great confidence that it’s all going to be fine.
Chaos is the thing to avoid. A velvet revolution would be a beacon to peoples like the Persians in Iran. Egypt would become the first self initiated Muslim democracy in the Middle East and it would look great on them. For the first time in a long time things would be looking up in that part of the world.