Thursday, October 16, 2014

Uncertain Outcomes of the Looming War Part 3: The Long War

Part 3: The Long War

The United States is telling us that this will be a long war from the start.  This isn't just managing expectations though its very wise to do so.

It takes time to get assets in place.  Those assets like fighter jets from a multitude of countries we already know are not enough.

No one knows when the war will end but it will end with victory against ISIS and possibly Assad.  It has started with bombing runs which are sure to intensify with time but analysts agree that bombs alone won't gain any territory.

We've had to watch the fall of Kobani in terrible slow motion.  Air strikes seem to only harass the enemy.  They don't accomplish the near term objective to contain ISIS.  Meanwhile the 2nd most powerful force in NATO sits on the border and watches enemy advance to their doorstep.  Turkey is enemy of ISIS and Assad but also to the defending Kurds.  They recently started bombing kurds within Turkey's borders.

So much for the argument about pulling your weight in NATO.  Some people are calling on Obama to be tough on Turkey.  They suggest that if Turkey doesn't step up the United States should recognize a sovereign Kurdistan.  Obama just hasn't got the stones for anything like that.  Nor could he offer Turkey the annexation of Syria.  So Turkey gets to sit back and watch their allied enemies fight each other.

Leon Panetta knows Obama really well.  The former director of the CIA, Mr. Panetta knows ISIS pretty well too.  He says that this war could last 30 years.  I do not doubt it at all.

The strategy so far seems to be to try everything except the one strategy we know will work:  A full scale invasion of Syria with infantry and armor that will push all the way to Baghdad.  Obama is simply incapable of giving this order.

Obama and the members of his administration don't know what they are doing.  That isn't just a random insult, though they well deserve every insult.  It is an actual observable fact.

Take for instance the administration's comments on Global Warming lately.  ISIS now controls a third of Kobani and the stated number one threat to US national Security is Global Warming?  This is notwithstanding that other horseman in the form of Ebola now spreading through the United States.   Ebola incidentally warrants sending "boots on the ground" to Africa in the eyes of the Obama Regime  while ISIS doesn't even rate that much.

Leon Panetta has it exactly right.  It will take 30 years or more to defeat ISIS if this kind of insanity persists in Washington.  They don't live on the same planet as the rest of us.  Imagine sitting down to a game of chess where the opponent can't see who's pieces are his own or the enemy's.  He can't see which squares are black or white.  He doesn't even seem to know how to win the game.  That person is essentially Obama.  Obama has zero chance of winning this war and therefore the allies also have the same chance.  luckily we only have a couple years left of him.

It's wrong to say that the air campaign has no effect on ISIS.  It does have an effect.  Every ISIS member killed, is a sex slave unsold, is an atrocity uncommitted, is one less Omar Khadr clone for the left to mewl and fawn over.  Though it comes at great cost to the taxpayer it is well worth it.

I hope to have Part 4 for you soon.  I'm going to change the focus from uncertainty to options.  I think the point about uncertainty has been driven home and there isn't much we can do about it.  I'm sure whatever Obama tries it will end up with the usual mess.  It's probably best not to even encourage an American led invasion on his watch.  There are other options however.

No comments:

Post a Comment