Saturday, October 4, 2014

Uncertain Outcomes of the Looming War Part 1: Our Allies

We are at war right now with the Islamic State.  Canada is in fact currently engaged with boots on the ground as Canadian special forces assist Kurds and Iraqis defend their homelands.  The Islamic Statists many threats against Canada directly and their crimes against humanity require an armed response.

That is the first thing that bothers me about this whole new conflict: its the fact that we have no choice in the matter.  We have to put off or abandon other things we wanted to do in order to deal with this.  Yet we must fight this evil now.  ISIS can't be allowed to get any larger.

So here we are again, 7 months after the end of the war in Afghanistan, going to war Islamic fundamentalists that are even worse than the last bunch.

I don't like it.  Something bothers me here.  I can not raise a single objection to war with ISIS.  Western democracies have been placed in check early in the game and now we have no option but to move against ISIS.    A whole new war wrapped with a neat bow.

Several of the deeply troubling things about the coming war can fit into these categories

  1. Our Allies
  2. Our Enemies
  3. A "long war"
  4. Unknown Outcomes
Each of these will explored in detail in different posts.

Our Allies


The United States is seeking a broad coalition in the war while conducting most of the bombing against ISIS.  Just as it should since ISIS is a direct result of Barack Obama's foreign policy.  Some argue that the previous Gulf Wars precipitated this crisis but they have merely set the stage.

There is no need to go all the way back to the Barbary Wars.  It's sufficient to examine the current occupant of the White House since he will be the major influence on the current war.  Iraq's security was well in hand when Obama entered office.  His ideologically inspired promise to leave Iraq left a vacuum for ISIS.  Progressives essentially believed their own propaganda.  American intervention causes all of the trouble, therefore non-intervention solves all the trouble, or so they thought.

Obama began his version middle eastern meddling with his infamous apology tour.  He did nothing to help a rebellion in Iran.  Then he helped install the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt which was thankfully removed by another rebellion.  He also "led from behind" in Libya to create another vacuum for Islamists and lost an Ambassador and Embassy along the way.  He had some hard words for the Syrian Dictator, but meekly shrank from his "red lines" on Russian promises to hold back Assad's chemical weapons.  The lucky and unanticipated outcome in Syria was that only half of that country was left to the Islamic State.

The White House of Barack Obama is one that has little respect for the American public.  This is evident in the distraction campaign surrounding the death of Ambassador Stevens and the very public cover up that tried to pin it on some amateur movie.  Even now Obama is blaming his failures on bad intelligence while he routinely dodges intelligence briefings for rounds of golf.

Obama can't even find the wisdom to approve the Keystone pipeline.  Keystone will move oil from Alberta in the safest way possible to Texas over a country enmeshed with pipelines.  Obama can't see the obvious logic in approving this pipeline and we are supposed to follow this man into battle?

As much as I'd like to say no, I simply can't.  Genocide is occurring today.  How could we justify our non-intervention to the victims families with talk of some tit for tat for the approval of a pipeline?  That might be Obama's America but that is not who we are.  We can't allow ourselves to be less than who we are because of a feeble minded leftist named Barack Obama.  He caused this crisis but we'll help him end it.

Aside: The best way to snub Obama is to develop nuclear weapons of our own or at least repeal the treaty on non-proliferation.  It would send the message that we lack confidence in our close ally while at the same time strengthening Canada's sovereignty in a cost effective way.  Politically this would be a severe blow to Obama's anti-nuclear agenda since he himself would be the reason for a new nuclear power rising where there was once only a docile neighbor.  It remains politically impossible here for now, but as I'll show you we are on the brink of massive geopolitical upheaval.  The opportunity may present itself.


Remember when Stephen Harper went to NATO to ask for additional troops in Afghanistan?  Only the US provided more troops.  Now when there is trouble in Europe's backyard Ukraine, they demand we do more.  They haven't been shy about committing jets against ISIS anyway.  That is pretty commendable and actually a shrewd policy.  We should mirror their example in the case of ISIS.

Saudi Arabia

If there were an election held in Saudi Arabia today we would find that ISIS had secured that country too.  The House of Saud is our friend but perhaps frenemy is more correct.   At best they are the pet fascists of the United States.  At worst the Saudis are a useful interface for the extreme Wahabi cult to influence the west.  

Nevertheless we would not be better off by ignoring the ISIS threat to Saudi Arabia.  It doesn't matter that their money and ideology directly created ISIS in the first place.  If Iraq falls then Saudi Arabia would be next.  I have little faith in their military even though they are well equipped.  The Saudi military probably will melt away in the face of serious fighting.  That is the trend shown by Arab armies in modern conflicts.

The streets would run with blood from purges in Saudi Arabia while ISIS ranks would swell like never before.  Their evil army would be replenished with every good imaginable including very possibly nuclear weapons.  Worse than any of that would be the psychological impact of ISIS capturing Mecca.  Every Muslim on earth could not ignore ISIS at that point.  Would Muslims individually side with the infidels or with ISIS?  

We would have a real World War on our hands if ISIS isn't stopped now, never mind the terrorism. 

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