Capital Flight Question Dodged by Mulcair During the Economy Debate

Stephen Harper did just fine in last night's Globe and Mail debate on economics.  The policies speak for themselves.  They are clearly proven to be the best ones.  This government significantly lowered taxes while increasing revenue.  Higher revenues allowed a balanced budget and increased spending.

Only Stephen Harper knows how to do that.  We know because he did it.  He promised us he would have a surplus and increase the UCCB and he did it.  He did it in a sustainable way.  He did it despite volatile markets, sovereign debt instability and blooming global security threats.

Stephen Harper has it covered.  You can put Conservative promises in the bank.

Nobody believes the NDP will have balanced budgets.  They have a raft of spending promises that they pretend will be paid in real time with higher taxes.   Not even the NDP believes it.  It's unsettling that they can so casually look people in the eye or into a camera and make impossible claims.  We are being asked to believe that Thomas J. Mulcair of the NDP is a better economist and conservative that Stephen Harper.  We are being asked to accept that a party that has never been in power and has ruined every province they stumbled into will somehow be better than the decade of sound fiscal judgement that is the hallmark of Stephen Harper's leadership.

There was a moment in the debate last night where Harper could have scored one on Mulcair.   The net was open.  The puck was loose.  Harper didn't take the shot.

Here is the exchange:

David Walmsley:   If corporations move their money elsewhere, you lose both your balanced budget and your revenue.

Hon. Tom Mulcair:  That’s why you’ve also got to work at the same time against tax havens. Mr. Harper has done nothing about that. We’ve had cases where other authorities in other countries have given full lists of Canadians who have been using illegal tax havens, and Mr. Harper has done nothing about that.

The economic phenomenon Walmsley describes is called Capital Flight.   If a government makes business conditions unfavorable by raising taxes or imposing onerous regulations those businesses will eventually leave that jurisdiction.

Mulcair didn't deny that was a possibility, instead he evaded the question by promising to go after a specific form of tax evasion.  That will not attract a dime of foreign investment.  There is no way to punish foreign investors into bringing their money to Canada.

Capital Flight is on my mind.  I lived through capital flight.  I spent months in Saskatchewan and British Columbia two weeks at a time.  The Progressives in Alberta decided to have a royalty review (tax hike on drilling) and so all the majority of smaller Operators fled east and west.  What did they expect?

What does the NDP expect to happen after they hike taxes?  There is oil and gas practically everywhere.  Even Canadian oil companies aren't obligated to invest here.  There is no law saying thou shalt drill.  No one would put their money into a place with such laws.  That is exactly the problem the NDP is creating.

Yes there's a global oil glut.  Good!  OPEC is dead.  Very good!  I've read that unconventional oil can handle some very low prices.  There is money to be made helping Operators cut costs.  That's Capitalism baby and we rock it.

We aren't made of sclerotic union shops like the government itself.  You can keep your tax funded bailouts for the mega zombie corps that are ready to die at the slightest trouble.  But before you do.  Just take a moment to recognize how things are stacked in these left wing parties.

Ontario's auto sector gets bailouts.  The West's economy get's what?  Taxes.  Anti-bailouts.  From our own insane NDP government no less.  Trudeau and Mulcair have a double dose of goodies in store for us should they win this election.  Carbon taxes.  Cap and Trade.  Endless regulations.  Only the rigs aren't going to British Columbia or Saskatchewan.  They are going to North Dakota and further.

Are they crazy though?  Do they not understand they are killing our jobs and industry?  Well ask them?  Every second policy mentions ending fossil fuels.  The left doesn't care about our jobs.  They don't give a damn if the resource industry shuts down like Venezuela's.  That is what they are after.

So these left wing parties are going to cut back on spending because they killed off their biggest source of revenue from resources right?  No they won't they never do.  Its the green shift under another name.  Either the green shift works and there is no Oil and Gas industry.  Taxes then have to come from other industries.  Or nothing shifts and everyone just has to pay ridiculous economy stifling taxes.

Programmers are just as talented in Belarus or India.  What magic will make these "good jobs" come and pay for NDP mistakes in Canada?  Same goes for manufacturing.

The NDP is bad news.

Trust Stephen Harper.  He knows what he's doing.  He's proved it. Surpluses and tax cuts exactly on time.  That is the kind of government we demand.

Implications of the Alberta Election on Federal Politics

I've read most of the pundits opining on the Alberta election and the NDP.  Many of them are spot on. More than a few of them are the sort of fantasy wish that projects phoney conclusions onto real events.  They get away with it because nobody can test their opinions before the Federal Election and after the election it will all be forgotten.

It's disappointing however that none of the professional talkers and opinion makers actually considered the real implications federally.  Conservatives were not punished Tuesday night.  They, the Wildrose, were rewarded.  Progressives took a thrashing for their progressive governing.

The first myth is that the election has no implication on the federal scene.  This is a bipartisan belief but stems from different viewpoints.

On the left they don't want to get their hopes up at least not too high.  Many on the left are already emotionally invested in Trudeau and the idea that "Angry Tom" could beat their Dartanion is anathema because Harper is also a big meanie in their sad little heads.  The script is set.  It will be personality and charisma vs experience and success.  They may not put it that way but that's what it will be.  Mulcair being experienced and lacking charm interferes with this scheme.  Mulcair's place is to lose badly and pave the way for boy Trudeau.

On the right the fears aren't so nuanced.  They fear an orange wave exactly like the one in Alberta.  Nothing is impossible.  There are scenarios where this could happen but they belong in the realm of Black Swan events.  Everyone recognizes this and immediately dismisses any relevance of the Alberta election to Federal politics.

They are both wrong though.  This does have implications for Federal Politics.

The Federal NDP have been written off almost from the moment Jack Layton departed.  Everyone saw the last Federal Election where NDP surged in Quebec.  It was both a rejection of the Bloc and a sympathetic gesture to smiling Jack Layton.  Mulcair has none of that going for him.  All things equal the Orange Wave of 2011 should experience a neep tide.  Those seats would presumably going to the Liberals in 2016.

But hang on.  Is that really going to happen?  The biggest single factor will be the NDP themselves.  Alberta's NDP win was a needed shot in the arm.  A confidence boost that will propel them to at least try to keep all those seats.  I'm sure a few more votes will flow their way as a result of this weeks events.  As long as they are kept from Justin Trudeau it's a very good thing.  We have the makings of an excellent brawl on the left.  All the NDP has to do is show up.

Now look at Alberta next October.  Don't discount the confusion between the federal Conservative Party and the defunct Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.  Its a confusion enemy pundits are all too willing to exploit especially while Prentice was around.  It's "Tory" this and "Tory" that and the sad retort "they aren't Tory's" is all but vanished now.  It's a shame.

I have an uncle in Ontario who has a nice TTC pension now.  You can imagine the debates we have.  He would bring up all kinds of nasty things Mulroney and the rest did and I could join in with him and say "this is a totally different Conservative Party, we turfed all those assholes and good riddance."  Wildrose gets to do that now.  Everyone should trash Progs at every level whenever possible.

I still meet people who drift from federal to provincial politics in the same conversation without quite grasping the real separation.  Progressives have been giving Conservatives a bad name for far too long.  It's nice to have another fragment of the old PC franchise out of the picture.

Notley's honeymoon should be over by summer.  I predict that nothing will be fixed.  Special interests are publicly lining up for their due already.  The Government will grow larger at an even faster rate while taxes and economic uncertainty will take their toll.  The palpable anxiety of the producer class can only grow in this environment.  How will those voters perceive the liability of a Trudeau or Mulcair government?  I think you know the answer, but note how many of these wise pundits are willing to lead you to it.

This should coincide nicely with Ontario's Liberal fatigue.  If Conservatives are still worried then that is good too.  It's great in fact.  My observation of the CPC is that it seems to perform better when the Party is scared.    Confidence and forthrightness should not be allowed to drift into deadly arrogance.  Honesty and humility as well should be the watchwords of every minister.  Nobody thinks you are perfect, so don't pretend.  Don't try to pull a fast one on voters.  Conservative voters are the savviest out there and they see and understand everything.   Next fall its going to be: here's our record; here's our plan; here's an axe and here's our necks; is there anything else we can do for you Sir/Madam?